Futures Tutorial 6

 Okay, Class, we will switch from methodology to findings.  From findings to implications.  From implications to decisions. 

Most of what you read about future projections is entertainment.  It may happen, or not, and there is no connection to decisions that need to be made today.  If the study doesn’t lead to decisions and decisions to action, then why do the study?  Intellectual amusement?  

In the U.S. Army the few decisions that are made today that shape the future generally go to technology, personnel and concepts. 

 The technology decisions are where to spent limited research and development dollars on which technologies. 

The personnel decisions are who to recruit, what incentives are needed (at the start, in service and retirement), when and how to train and educate (two different words), and what gates for promotion will produce the right people in the right jobs 10, 20 and 30 years from now.

The conceptual decisions are about the American Way of Land Warfare for each era.  The tightness of fit for doctrine, organization, materiel, training, logistics, personnel and finances with the American Army as it is – has to be better than any potential enemy.  In other words, we don’t need the perfect doctrine, but a doctrine that is supported by the whole of the organization to produce results to defeat any enemy.  If we can find a Blitzkrieg II, then all the better, but the focus is getting the concepts right to overcome the challenges while producing evolutionary organizational change with revolutionary outcomes. 

For Virginia, the primary decisions are laws and regulations.   The legal framework and implementing instructions change behaviors that matter 10, 20 and 30 years ago.  Yet, much of what happens that is most important to Virginia is outside of the law – for the most part.  What happens inside families is vital to Virginia – for good and ill.  Laws matter some, but moral suasion is more important.  Sharing the ideas that motivate Virginians to change behaviors becomes as important as a to-do list for a member of the General Assembly.  I have some graphics that try to capture this challenge – later. 

Next up – the past is prologue for Virginia.