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Front, back, and spine of “A Grief Felt”

Sent my last edits for “A Grief Felt” to the publisher.  Hope these last edits are lasting.  I don’t want to edit it anymore.  I just want to see it in final form, be pleased, and get the writing “battle rhythm” rocking for “On the Far Frontier: Book One.”  I’m at page 50 and so ready to drive on to page 300.  But, that’s not the biggest reason for hoping these last edits are lasting.

My every review of “A Grief Felt” is gut wrenching.  Not complaining.  Just sharing.

I hope that raw emotion communicates the message of transformation to the reader.  I know my emotions are heightened, because it is so personal to me.  Yet, I really don’t want this book to be read as merely one man’s tale.  I didn’t write it to emote.

I wrote it to share a story of grief becoming gratitude.  Real gratitude.  Sincere joy.  Deep peace.  True contentment.  And, I sincerely hope, the new capacity to share gratitude, joy, peace, contentment, and speak “Life” to others – with some success.  That’s all for others to judge, as well as being my aspiration.

I’ll post when the book is available to my vast reading public of you, three or four, fine folks.

Feels good to get this out and on its way.

Finis.

 

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Socialism sucks. And it doesn’t keep you safe.

Pandemic Spotlight on Socialism

The Wuhan Virus Pandemic shows Americans, and especially Virginians, what Socialism looks like. The empty store shelves are just a glimpse of what Socialism makes much, much worse. Socialism isn’t what a Kindergarten teacher imagines it could be – like when the children are told to share and share alike. In a Socialist society, she doesn’t get to make the benevolent rules, because she is one of the children. Also, when the State is the teacher, it wields a whip to give the lash. Like a child, she must ask permission for everything. Because Socialism means living a life of being told what to do. That fits, because telling people what to do is what Totalitarianism is all about and Socialism of any leaf is always a branch from Human Secular Totalitarianism.

Whatever you call a society where the state takes from some to give to others, and tells everyone what to do or not – whether Socialism, Progressivism, Liberalism, National Socialism, Communism, Central or State Planning, or the Green New Deal – the core ideas are fundamentally flawed. They always fail. Historically, since the French Revolution they result in state-sponsored imprisonments and killing. They’ve committed the most murder in all of human history.

Every attempt of government to run an economy fails. Every fundamental, re-ordering of society by the state, however well-intended, damages or destroys the society. Power given to the state is abused, always, by people in authority.

It’s not a surprise the legitimate Emergency Powers exercised by Governors to mitigate the spread of the Wuhan Virus are abused by some. The bad Governors play petty tyrants dictating behaviors, keeping the economy locked down, choosing business winners and losers, close churches, as well as denying the rights for assembly and to work. This government overreach spotlights key aspects of Socialism.

• Government can’t manage medicine. The mismanagement of emergency healthcare shows why ‘Medicare For All’ will fail. Medical services rationed by bureaucrats means more people die. Better, affordable healthcare comes from expanding, competitive services and getting government out of medicine. Health Savings Accounts beat government health managers. Government can’t stop a virus. Longer lockdowns doesn’t make anyone safe.
• Government can’t manage the economy. Government control can kill an economy fast. Start with mismanaging healthcare as one-sixth of the economy.  Then, lockdown the small business owners who hire half the jobs and create more than half of the GDP. State governments regulate restaurants, hair salons, theaters, and gyms, etc. out of business faster the Federal government can print money to prop them up. Government can’t regulate the supply chain to keep toilet paper or beef in stores. Socialism means shortages. Socialism keeps huge unemployment or government under-employment rolls.
• Green New Deal kills the economy. True, fewer cars and planes running during the Pandemic means less pollution. But, crowded subways and buses in “Smartgrowth” urban areas brought deadlier spread of disease. Destroying the US gas, oil, and coal production kills the economy, ruins whole regions, makes us dependent on foreigners who hate us, and – frankly – doesn’t save the ecology. Technology promises improvements in pollution prevention and clean up, not government direction.
• Sharing the wealth creates poverty. Printing money for almost everyone during the mitigation lock up may look like a trial run for a ‘Universal Basic Income’ (UBI). It should show how little difference there is between UBI and welfare. Both establish government dependency in an underclass. Both rob people of individual dignity and the self-sufficiency of work. The Left loves this idea to fundamentally re-order society with modern bread and circuses. It didn’t work for the Romans. It’s failed on Indian Reservations and in generational ghettoes of government dependence. Ignoring the laws of economics is like tempting the law of gravity.

If the Federal government prints more money for a stimulus-based “recovery” it’ll fail worse than FDR in the Great Depression and BHO in the Great Recession. If the country drowns in debt or is broken by inflation, we will all be poor – and poorer still if it actually kills the Republic.

• Shutting down churches won’t stop Christians. The Left can see how obedient Christian citizens are to comply with anything government says to do. But, they can’t see how Bible-believing Christians will come out of this experience better, stronger, and in greater numbers. A Pandemic is a trial of faith, never a failure to faith. Christians win.
• Others can decide everything in your life. And they will, if We, The People let them. If you don’t want the rest of your life, and every aspect of your life, run by clerks at the DMV, commit yourself to stop Socialism – now.

 

The pandemic is a stage to spotlight this debut of socialism, serious socialism, in America. A voting majority of Americans, and especially Virginians, should hate this dress rehearsal. Our votes are needed to close Socialism as a one night show, opening night flop. Our willingness to commit civil disobedience to tyranny may be required.

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Free states in the West followed by the Southern states who love freedom

We’re Not All In This Together Anymore

The 45 days of mitigation against the Wuhan Virus advised by the Federal Government (GOTUS) is over. The mitigation worked. The rate of new infections slowed. It didn’t stop the virus and it won’t. There is much more illness and death to come, because there is neither a vaccine nor cure available. There will be a re-opening spike and more waves to come. But, mitigation bought enough time for states to increase their healthcare capacity to deal with the Wuhan Virus Pandemic. Now, as the states take their separate paths we’re not all in this together anymore. Some Americans will live more freely and others will submit to their Governor’s diktat.

Frankly, this old U.S. Government “P” cheers this exercise in federalism, because it demonstrates the intent of our still current 1787 Constitution, as Amended. The states are supposed to be sovereign with plenary powers. GOTUS is limited to 17 specified powers. At least, on paper that’s the way it’s supposed to be. And, ironically, when soldiers and electeds alike swear that oath to defend the U.S. Constitution, they’re actually pledged to the words written on that paper. Nothing else. Good to see it working well in one respect.

The states that open up should be cheered. The states that resist full recovery should be fixed by their own citizens. It is good science, good economics, and good for freedom to open up as much as possible now.

• Good Science. In Virginia, according to the Virginia Department of Health’s charts (courtesy The University of Virginia), there’s no difference in sickness and death between opening May 1^st or June 10^th. The delay is to let hospitals prepare for the maximum need to come. Our Governor Ralph “Dr Death” Northam, says he will only re-open the Commonwealth based on science. Science, especially for most of Virginia’s counties and cities, says go to Phase I today.

It’ll never be “safe” to go out because the virus will stay out and about – and keep mutating. Not one life will be saved by closing any business, public place, or dictating guidelines on how businesses operate – for another day. Gov. Northam threatens to renew restrictions if new cases come up. That’s a self-fulfilling prophecy for a petty tyrant. There will be a spike. There will be more and more cases until the virus burns out.

• Good Economics. Our economy is based on the constant flow of capital. Money has to be changing hands all the time to make it work. As both gas and oil are to an automobile engine, capital is the economy. Re-opening the economy doesn’t create the false dichotomy of money vs. health, or greed vs. lives. The government ordered shut down is to the economy as an abortion is to the baby in the womb. A centrally planned, ordered, economy dies. An indoor firing range in Lynchburg successfully sued to open. The circuit judge ruled the Executive Orders un-Constitutional – too bad the ruling doesn’t extend to the whole state. Hopefully, more businesses will sue soon. Or, simply open up.
• Good for Freedom. The Governor’s Executive Orders (EO) went far beyond the letter and the spirit of the law. Title 32 and Title 44, Code of Virginia, don’t even suggest the governor can make an arbitrary list of essential businesses to discriminate against the nonessential ones. Nor, does the law indicate the governor can enforce guidelines for how private businesses conduct their business with threat of arrest, indictment, and forced closure. Finally, the law isn’t a license to violate the 1^st Amendment exercise of the Freedom of Religion and Assembly.

Americans, especially Virginians, should take their freedom back now. Restore our economy now. Shelter at risk persons as much as possible – on our own. Demand local governments exercise their powers, like they have as Second Amendment Sanctuaries and Constitutional cities and counties to revoke the oppressive EOs.

The Americans who remain in the Wuhan Gulag are no longer in it all together with Americans who are living in the Recovering States. The differences are, and will be more so, abundantly clear.

Virginians need to open Recovering Cities and Counties, now.

Sic Semper Tyrannis

Why “An Appeal to Heaven” from Virginia Is Necessary

Mitigation worked. Opening will always cause a spike in illness. No matter when it happens. Open Virginia now.

Why and Wherefores for Opening Virginia’s Cities and Counties Now

The following explains why the Resolution from citizens to Virginia Cities and Counties (not included here), “An Appeal to Heaven” from Virginia, is necessary.  It explains why re-opening Virginia by city and county follows Federal guidelines, using Virginia Health Department scientific data, which allows recovering cities and counties to restore liberty, rights, and the economy at the soonest possible time – without increasing the risk to public health.

The Pandemic Required Action

A Novel Coronavirus commonly known as COVID-19, became a clear and present danger to the Commonwealth of Virginia and the United States of America in March 2020. COVID-19 was, and remains, different from other seasonal and historical viruses. It appears to be six to ten times more lethal than seasonal flu. It is more than twice as contagious as flu. There is no vaccine and no known cure. The present structure of the U.S. and Virginia economy in the Information Era within a global economy requires the free flow of energy, materials, services, and, especially so, capital to operate. Consequently, COVID-19 is significant enough of a threat to our unique population and economy to be America’s First Biological War.

The President of the United States and the Governor of Virginia took long-planned, legal, and scientifically-appropriate emergency actions to respond to the threat.

The Government of the United States (GOTUS) roles, responsibilities, and emergency powers are limited and specified in law the U.S. Code.

GOTUS and Virginia have planned and exercised emergency responses for decades and actually implemented them during natural disasters and after the Islamist Attack of 9-11.

GOTUS and Virginia implemented emergency actions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Governor Northam Made Emergency Responses

1. Governor Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency because of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 12, 2020. Then, he issued Executive Orders (EO).

• Order of Public Emergency Two – Order of the Governor and State Health Commissioner Declaration of Public Health Emergency  ~ March 25, 2020
• EO-53 on March 23, 2020 and amended it on April 15, 2020 to read as AMENDED: Temporary Restrictions on Restaurants, Recreational, Entertainment, Gatherings, Non-essential Retail Businesses, and Closure of K-12 Schools Due to Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)  ~ April 15, 2020. It reads as follows:
• “Directive 1.  Therefore, by virtue of the authority vested in me by Article V, Section 7 of the Constitution of Virginia, by Title 44-146.17 of the Code of Virginia and in furthereance of Executive Order 51, I order the following:
• 1. Effective 11:59 p.m., Tuesday, March 24, 2020 until 11:59 p.m., Wednesday, June 10, 2020, all public and private in person gatherings of more than 10 individuals are prohibited, as further clarified in Executive Order 55.
• 2. Cessation of all in-person instruction at K-12 schools, public and private, for the remainder of the 2019-2020 school year. Facilities providing child care services may remain open. On March 18, 2020, the Commissioner of the Virginia Department of Social Services, Duke Storen, issued a letter with guidance for daycare providers operating in the Commonwealth, including group size limits of 10 and stringent public health guidelines to prevent the spread of COVID-19. That guidance remains effective and I urge all Virginians with school-age children to review it. In addition, I urge child care providers to prioritize services for children of essential personnel, while asking all families with the ability to keep their children home, to do so. To that end, the Virginia Department of Social Services and the Virginia Department of Education will issue guidance to communities about operationalizing emergency child care services for essential personnel.
• 3. Closure of all dining and congregation areas in restaurants, dining establishments, food courts, breweries, microbreweries, distilleries, wineries, tasting rooms, and farmers markets effective 11:59 p.m., Tuesday, March 24, 2020 until 11:59 p.m., Thursday, May 7, 2020. Restaurants, dining establishments, food courts, breweries, microbreweries, distilleries, wineries, tasting rooms, and farmers markets may continue to offer delivery and take-out services.
• 4. Closure of all public access to recreational and entertainment businesses, effective 11:59 p.m., Tuesday, March 24, 2020 until 11:59 p.m., Thursday, May 7, 2020 as set forth below:
• Fitness centers, gymnasiums, recreation centers, indoor sports facilities, and indoor exercise facilities;
• Beauty salons, barbershops, spas, massage parlors, tanning salons, tattoo shops, and any other location where personal care or personal grooming services are performed that would not allow compliance with social distancing guidelines to remain six feet apart.
• Racetracks and historic horse racing facilities; and
• Bowling alleys, skating rinks, amusement parks, trampoline parks, fairs, arts and craft facilities, aquariums, zoos, escape rooms, indoor shooting ranges, public and private social clubs, and all other places of indoor public amusement.
• 5. Essential retail businesses may remain open during their normal business hours. Such businesses are:
• Grocery stores, pharmacies, and other retailers that sell food and beverage products or pharmacy products, including dollar stores, and department stores grocery or pharmacy products, including dollar stores, and department stores with grocery or pharmacy operations.
• Medical, laboratory, and vision supply retailers;
• Electronic retailers that sell or service cell phones, computers, tablets, and other communications technology;
• Automotive parts, accessories, and tire retailers as well as automotive repair facilities;
• Home improvement, hardware, building material, and building supply retailers;
• Lawn and garden equipment retailers;
• Beer, wine and liquor stores;
• Retail functions of gas stations and convenience stores;
• Retail located within healthcare facilities;
• Banks and other financial institutions with retail functions;
• Pet and feed stores;
• Printing and office supply stores; and
• Laundromats and dry cleaners.
• 6. Effective 11:59 p.m., Tuesday March 24, 2020 until 11:59p.m., Thursday, May 7, 2020, any brick and mortar retail business not listed in paragraph 5 may continue to operate but must limit all in-person shopping to no more than 10 patrons per establishment.  If any such business cannot adhere to the 10 patron limit with proper social distancing requirements, it must close.
• 7. All businesses shall, to the extent possible, adhere to social distancing recommendations, enhanced sanitizing practices on common surfaces, and other appropriate workplace guidance from state and federal authorities while in operation.
• 8. Although, business operations offering professional rather than retail services may remain open, they should utilized teleworking as much as possible.  Where telework is not feasible, such businesses must adhere to social distancing recommendations, enhanced sanitizing practices on common surfaces, and apply the relevant workplace guidance from state and federal authorities.
•  9. Nothing in the Order shall limit: (a) the provision of health care or medical services; (b) access to essential services for low-income residents, such as food banks; (c) the operations of the media; (d) law enforcement agencies; or (e) the operation of government.
• 10. The waiver of Title 18.2-422 of the Code of Virginia so as to allow the wearing of a medical mask, respirator, or any other protective face covering for the purpose of facilitating the protection of one’s personal health in response to the COVID-19 public health emergency declared by the State Health Commissioner on February 7, 2020 and reflected in Executive Order 51 declaring a state of emergency in the Commonwealth. Executive Order 51 is so amended. This waiver is effective as of March 12, 2020 until 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday, June 10, 2020.
• 11. Continued cancellation of all specially-scheduled state conferences and large events until 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday, June 10, 2020
• 12. Continued cessation of all official travel outside of Virginia by state employees, with increased flexibility for inter-state commuters and essential personnel until 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday, June 10, 2020.
• 13. Nothing in this Order abrogates the provisions of Executive Orders 51 or 55, which are still in full force and effect.
• Violation of paragraphs 1, 3, 4, and 6 of this Order shall be a Class 1 misdemeanor pursuant to § 44-146.17 of the Code of Virginia.”

State, City and County Emergency Powers Are Significant

2. The Constitution and Code of Virginia give the Governor the legal authority for his executive orders during a declared emergency. The Governor and political subdivisions have expansive powers.

2014 Virginia Code

Title 44 – Military and Emergency Laws

Title 44-146.19.  Powers and duties of political subdivisions

C. Whenever the Governor has declared a state of emergency, each political subdivision within the disaster area may, under the supervision and control of the Governor or his designated representative, control, restrict, allocate or regulate the use, sale, production and distribution of food, fuel, clothing and other commodities, materials, goods, services and resource systems which fall only within the boundaries of that jurisdiction and which do not impact systems affecting adjoining or other political subdivisions, enter into contracts and incur obligations necessary to combat such threatened or actual disaster, protect the health and safety of persons and property and provide emergency assistance to the victims of such disaster. In exercising the powers vested under this section, under the supervision and control of the Governor, the political subdivision may proceed without regard to time-consuming procedures and formalities prescribed by law (except mandatory constitutional requirements) pertaining to the performance of public work, entering into contracts, incurring of obligations, employment of temporary workers, rental of equipment, purchase of supplies and materials, levying of taxes, and appropriation and expenditure of public funds.”

Governments Exceeded Their Constitutional and Legitimate Powers

3. The Governor’s Executive Orders exceed his Constitutional and legal authority significantly.

·         Virginia’s Emergency law specifically prohibits violations of the U.S. and Virginia Rights for a free press and the Right to bear arms. It is silent on the First Amendment right to exercise religion and peacefully assemble. It doesn’t mention the right to work. Silence doesn’t mean consent for the Governor to suspend these Rights – even if their exercise could exacerbate the public health emergency.

·         Virginia’s Emergency law doesn’t restrict behaviors or actions by citizens. When the governor says persons may go to the beach to fish, but not to swim, he is making up law. When all elective surgeries except abortions are prohibited, he makes preference to some actions and restricts other – again making up law as he goes along.

·         Virginia’s Emergency law doesn’t provide for a “social distance” concept. The safe distance to mitigate the spread of a highly, infectious viral disease may be six feet, but making the distancing – requiring citizens to behave in a specific manner – a state-wide edict is, yet again, making up law.

The Governor Relies on  Modeling of Policy Alternatives

4. The Governor made his Executive Orders based on modeling studies used by the Virginia Department of Health. The slide summary of these studies to date was presented as Virginia

COVID 19 Models Initial Analysis by Carter C. Price PhD on April 13, 2020. The presentation invites serious questions about its policy alternatives.

·         Consider this VDH slide. The table on the right shows data for 3 of 5 curves only.

Assumes no change to increase healthcare capacity

·         The presentation offers two kinds of mitigation against the virus or do nothing.  The “slowing” stops growth but doesn’t fully stop the virus.  The “pausing” pauses growth, keeping the new cases steady.   What is the difference between slowing and pausing with regard to restrictions in EO 53 Amended?  Neither ends the plague.  Neither cures the disease.  Both mitigations result in a lot of sick people and many die.

• The top line of the numbers chart shows the number of new cases in the one week ending in Easter – which passed on April 12th.  The actual number of new cases (from the Johns Hopkins site) was 2877.  The model projected 2469.   Unfortunately, the chart doesn’t show the Pause Apr30 number.  The graph indicates they should be close together.
• Look at the area under the curves for Pause Apr30 and Pause Jun10.  They are about the same.  The same number of people get sick.
• If Virginia re-opens in May, the curve goes up steeply.  Just like the curve goes up steeply if Virginia opens up in June. In both cases the analysts conclude at the top of the curve the need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators will exceed the capacity in every region of Virginia.
• The graphics of capacities are for the Pause June 10 option only. The demand for hospital beds exceeds capacity in every region. That assumes the capacity for hospital beds is fixed. Even though the previous chart showed Pause Apr 30 would have higher demands, little is different between Apr 30 and June 10 re-opening except the time to prepare more beds, ICU beds, and ventilators – assuming the model is correct actually.
• Also, the key assumptions need to be watched closely for the next 2 weeks.  When only 39, 985 persons are tested out of 8.47 million Virginians (as of April 12th), 1 in 5 persons confirmed to be infected need to be hospitalized.  More tests may show fewer than 1 in 5 (20%) need to be hospitalized.
• Likewise, there is an assumption for every 1 person confirmed with infection there are 7 initial infections.  If that number is higher, then more people are infected – and not being hospitalized (or they’d be confirmed infections) then, again, fewer than 1 in 5 need to be hospitalized.
• The lower the demand for hospitalization from both assumptions, the less reason to keep people locked up in a stay-at-home order.
• How long does it take to fix the worst case in bed shortage? If 6k extra beds are needed in the Northern Hospital Region, how long does it take to provide those beds? Is it impossible to get them by early July but achievable only by late August? Why and by what authority is it so?
• The Governor and the VDH need to answer these questions for The People:
  • “Will Virginia increase its’ capacity for beds, ICU beds, ventilators to exceed the worst, highest demand for the Pause Jun10 estimate?”  Yes or no?
  • “Can Virginia increase its capacity for beds, ICU beds, ventilators to exceed the worst, highest demand for the Pause Apr30 estimate?”  Yes or no?
• Finally, every medical authority agrees that when Virginia moves back to normal there will be a significant increase in cases.   And, there will be recurring waves of Wuhan Virus until a vaccine is ready in a year to a year and half. Following the Governor’s EO’s to the letter through June does nothing to prevent, slow, or cure future waves of infections.

GOTUS Plans to Re-Open America

5. President Trump revealed the Government of the United States (GOTUS) plan for re-opening America on April 17, 2020. The guidelines are online at https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/. The plan is to move forward in three phases. Each phase has hard evidence data on COVID-19 infections as the gateway criteria to move on to the next phase. The model, which Governor Northam said he supports in a press conference on April 17, 2020, works as follows:

• First, a state or county goes 14 days with reductions in new cases or a reduction in positive tests.
• The second gate criteria is important to understand. A state could have increasing cases (i.e. 800, 900, 1000, etc.), but the testing could be expanding greatly which changes the actual impact of those increases. If testing increased significantly (i.e. 10k, 15k, 20k in the same time period), then using our example numbers of 800/10,000, 900/15,000, 1000/20,000 establishes rate of infection decrease of .08, .06, .05. The reported cases are increasing, but the actual rate of infection is decreasing. This is very important because testing was low to begin and is expanding rapidly.   More testing provides a clearer picture of cases of infection, non-infection, and recovery
• If the rate by testing – by either criteria above – gets smaller for 14 days, the state is ready to move to Phase I.
• Phase I means people can go back to work. They should do social distancing – the standard six foot standoff recommended.   Citizens should follow the other hygiene actions, like hand washing, gloves, and face masks promoted for the past two months. Gyms can open. Elective surgeries return. Restaurants open with social distancing. Gatherings should be kept below 10.
• A number of states and about one in four US counties are ready to move to Phase I today. They are good to go for the criteria. After 14 days of more good news in Phase I, the state moves to the next phase.
• Many counties and cities in Virginia should have been able to move to Phase I on the date of the announcement – April 17, 2020.
• Phase II means schools and daycares open. Large venues, like stadiums, open with social distancing. Some states and counties could be in Phase II on May 1^st. Likewise, many cities and counties in Virginia could move to Phase II on May 1, 2020.
• Another good run of 14 days qualifies a state for Phase III. Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, called Phase III “the new normal.” It is actually life back to normal except for at risk populations who need to self-quarantine as much as possible. It includes social distancing for everyone where possible. Some states and counties could be in Phase III by May 15^th – as well as many Virginia cities and counties.

Virginia Should Re-Open By City and County

6. If Virginia is to follow the GOTUS Re-opening plan guidelines, it should do so by political sub-divisions, not for the Commonwealth as a whole. The size of Virginia and diversity of population concentrations makes one size not fit all. Several actions are needed for Virginia to re-open by political sub-divisions:

• Governor Northam said that a virus can cross county lines. That is true, only if infected persons cross county lines. If the citizens in hotspot city and counties obey the Governor’s EOs to stay home, they won’t cross the county lines to less infected communities. The cities and counties that fail the GOTUS gateway criteria to move to a new phase can stay locked up until June 10, 2020 if necessary.
• Governor Northam said Virginia will follow the plan based on science. He did not specify any scientific standards separate from GOTUS. If there are other science considerations, they need to be presented to The People.
• Given the guidance, the scientific data the Virginia Department of Health is reporting online is incomplete. The daily and cumulative totals for infections are reported. But, only the total number of tests, not the daily tally is reported. If Virginia is following the GOTUS gateway criteria, then daily new cases, daily tests, and the ratio of daily new cases divided by daily tests must be reported. The cumulative death toll isn’t required, but should continue to be reported to provide a perspective with other public health morbidity statistics.
• The city and country Emergency Managers, cited in Virginia Law, must compare the Governor’s estimates of maximum need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators as key tracking items as well as the all the healthcare requirements for their political subdivision to the resources available.
  • Daily, every Emergency Manager should be able to state, categorically, the estimated maximum requirement for healthcare services in the city or county – according to VDH estimates and the availability of the same healthcare services from local healthcare providers.
  • If the projections indicate a shortage, then, obviously, the shortage should be addressed by the Emergency Manager.
  • Likewise, in cities and counties with very few infections to none, the Emergency Managers must ascertain if sufficient testing and public health service capability is available to identify and isolate any new infection and take action as necessary.
  • The Emergency Manager can compare the city or county COVID-19 data to the gateway criteria.
  • If either of the two gateway criteria is met, the Emergency Manager can propose to the City Council or County Board of Supervisors to move to the next phase. The Emergency Manager can communicate their intent to the Governor and re-open based on “science.”
  • The Cities and Counties should address the gaps in guidance. For example, since churches aren’t mentioned in the GOTUS guidance, do they approximate the rules for dining facilities in Phase I or large venues in Phase II?
    • Cities and Counties could state clearly that churches should be encouraged to keep social distancing and protect at risk populations to stay home, but the free exercise of religion shall not be infringed.
• Governor Northam should concur with the GOTUS plan to allow cities and counties to re-open by Phases.  IAW Title 44, Code of Virginia, the Governor should give such direction to the Emergency Managers of the cities and counties.

If the Governor Refuses Cities and Counties to Re-Open

7. Should Governor Northam refuse to direct to the cities and counties to move to the next phase when they are compliant with the gateway criteria, the City Councils and County Board of Supervisors should consider the following:

• The Code of Virginia, Title 44, gives the political subdivisions the same expansive emergency powers as the Governor by his direction. The legal power to invoke requires the legal power to revoke. If the direction is so un-Constitutional, legally, or morally wrong to be destructive, the political subdivisions must alter the Government, specifically, by revoking the Governor’s orders.
• Many Cities and Counties have served notice to Governor Northam that any un-Constitutional law or order that violated the citizen’s Second Amendment Rights would not be effective in their political subdivision. This situation, if the EOs are destructive to life, liberty, rights, and property, is the same.

The Cities and Counties Should Act

8. The public health intent for Virginia, if not the actual letter of Governor’s EOs, was in accordance with GOTUS guidance to mitigate the damage done by the CORVID-10 Pandemic for a period of time – from March 15 to April 30. Following the GOTUS guidance to re-open America on April 17, each political subdivision and every citizen of the Commonwealth of Virginia must choose to follow the EOs as written and implemented under any circumstances to come or to alter the directive of the Governor and face the consequences of such actions. The choice is driven because:

• The EOs are un-Constitutional. Virginians Constitutional rights to exercise religion, peacefully assemble, and work aren’t subject to arbitrary, contradictory, excessive infringement using the emergency powers given in the Code of Virginia to the Governor and political subdivisions of Virginia.
• The EOs are legally arbitrary, punitive, and discriminatory. Dictated acts of behavior to “social distance” citizens is making up law. The specifics, such as allowing fishing but not swimming, on beaches aren’t based on law or science. Keeping citizens from their work is depriving them of income and property without due process.
• The EOs are morally repugnant. Restricting the ill is to quarantine. Restricting the healthy is to imprison. Destroying jobs, businesses, and the economy based on modeling projections that indicate continuing the restrictions in EOs does not prevent or cure cases of COVID-19 infection is morally wrong. Denying citizens life-giving surgeries for heart conditions and cancer while allowing life-taking surgery to kill babies in the womb is not based on law, science, or traditional morality.

An Appeal to Heaven Is to Alter Government

9. Virginia must appeal to Heaven for the right to alter government if the Governor does not allow cities and counties to re-open. Because governments are instituted among Men and Women, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. When the emergency powers given the Governor and political subdivisions to suppress a public health hazard are in fact oppressing The People, the consent of the governed must be withdrawn. When the government of Virginia becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter the government.

Sic Semper Tyrannis

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Actual picture of government and business relationships and connections in a Mixed economy.

Business and Government During a Pandemic

Normally, business and government are as entangled together as hair knots. That’s business and government as usual. During a pandemic the web of connections becomes readily apparent as the balance between business and government lurches from helpful to harmful. No matter what is happening, the entanglements remain inextricable. How government and business actually co-exist defines our “Mixed” economy.

Because America’s never had a true Free Market economy. We’ve never had full on Socialism, either. Even during the “laissez faire” days of industrialization in the late 19^th Century, government intervened in the market place with tariffs, taxes and land grants. Today, the federal, state, and local governments are deeply involved in every business. From taxes to regulations, government makes businesses pay up. During a pandemic the intervention is more dictatorial – in the name of public health.

So, when the states order a shutdown, which close almost half the restaurants, then 6m of the 12.2m restaurant workers lose their job.

When the states order hospitals to stop elective surgeries, which are much of hospitals’ revenue, the hospitals lay off workers. The spike in Wuhan Virus victims can’t keep one sixth of the economy open.   When government dictates how to run healthcare, healthcare fails.

Consequently, government diktats to mitigate the timing for the peak illnesses made the country go from 5.89m unemployed in January to 26.9m in April. And it’ll get higher. The Wuhan Virus didn’t do that, the federal, state, and local governments did.

Consequently, the dependencies in our economy should be clear. Small businesses create two thirds of the jobs and half of the wealth (GDP) for America. If governments close almost half the economy, then America goes beyond the worst nightmares of the Great Depression’s 25% unemployment. The state and local governments determined to keep small businesses closed are committing economic suicide.

Small businesses are the goose that lays the golden eggs. Meanwhile, the Federal government is printing fool’s gold on paper with every grant, giveaway, and reimbursement. The state governments face bankruptcy – while demanding Federal bailouts – as they spend more than they take in. Government can’t spend its way back to prosperity.

State and local governments can make the recovery awful by keeping the stay-at-home orders past April 30^th.

GOTUS can actually destroy the economy during the recovery by stimulus spending America into fatal debt and inflation.

That’s how government and business work during a pandemic in our Mixed economy.

They should work like the US did in the Depression of 1920-21. Compare President Calvin Coolidge’s economic recovery from a Depression, during the Spanish Flu pandemic third wave, in 18 months vs. the years of weak, wasted recovery with Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt causing the Great Depression and President Obama causing the Great Recession.

Great studies explain this better by chapter and verse. (Amity Shlaes, The Forgotten Man and Niall Ferguson, Ascent of Money – stand out!)  I first learned this when I took “Government and Business in a Mixed Economy” at Grad School #1.  It was news to me how government and business have always affected economies. The Mixed economy tracks from Bible times, through tribal law, and for all of recorded history.

The course was a lifelong mind expansion for me. The lessons lasted beyond the sheer excitement of being in a class where the air crackled with intellectual energy and insight from the late Dick Darman and Roger Porter. The lessons stuck with me.

Like, everything government does creates winners and losers.

(Every government action creates winners and losers – became a key teaching point when I taught Public Administration. It was on the exam. Even, so-called “win-win” situations have a downside or a much lesser upside.)

When government orders much of the economy to close, it causes chaos followed by catastrophe. Dictating forced closure sets the stage for the government-managed re-opening and recovery. That overreach in a mixed economy means instant Depression and threatens truly disastrous debt and inflation.

Americans, especially we Virginians, must act as sovereign citizens to control governments before governments kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Governments can’t control, stop, cure, or prevent a virus. Governments can kill an economy worse than any pandemic can.

The US is a Mixed economy.

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Open Virginia by City and County

Virginians, Ask Your City or County to Re-Open

The Government of the United States, GOTUS, said America could re-open by state and within each state, by city and county.  Many Virginia cities and counties meet the GOTUS guidance to open after 14 days of reductions in infections or the rate of daily infections/daily tests.

Virginians can ask their city councils and county board of supervisors to direct the Emergency Director of their political subdivision to revoke the Governor’s Executive Order 53, as Amended for their city or county.

This draft resolution is called “An Appeal to Heaven from Virginia, A Resolution to Restore Freedom to the Commonwealth of Virginia during a Pandemic.”  Virginia citizens can present the resolution to their City Council or Board of Supervisors.

The term “an appeal to Heaven” is how Virginia’s first patriots described the right of The People to change government. Virginia needs to change the government orders during the Pandemic.

The Governor should concur with the resolutions from cities and counties and direct revocation of his EO. If the Governor refuses to follow the Federal guidelines to allow counties to re-open, then cities and counties have to revoke the Governor’s Executive Orders to become Recovering Cities and Counties.

Revocation of emergency orders without the direction of the Governor alters the letter of the Virginia Law. Yet, the since the cities and counties, as political subdivisions already have the legal power to invoke emergency declarations, they should revoke the same in the spirit, or intent, of the Constitution and Code of Virginia.

An Appeal to Heaven from Virginia

A Resolution to Restore Freedom to the Commonwealth of Virginia during a Pandemic

Whereas the Wuhan Virus, a Novel Coronavirus commonly known as COVID-19, became a clear and present danger to the Commonwealth of Virginia and the United States of America in March 2020. COVID-19 is different enough from other seasonal viruses in its threat to our unique population and economy to be America’s First Biological War. The President of the United States and the Governor of Virginia took planned, legal, and scientifically-appropriate emergency actions;

Whereas Virginia’s Governor Ralph Northam exercised the emergency powers granted to him and political subdivisions of the Commonwealth, our cities and counties, by Title 44, Code of Virginia. But, Gov. Northam exceeded his authority in his Executive Order 53 of March 23, 2020 and as amended on April 15, 2020 by;

• suspending and abridged Virginians’ Constitutional rights for the free exercise of religion, assembly, and to work,
• effectively created new criminal laws by prohibiting citizen actions and behaviors,
• discriminating against and closing businesses and places of worship designated as “non-essential’”
• interrupting life-giving elective surgeries, but allowing elective abortion surgery to kill babies in the womb;

Whereas Gov. Northam’s Executive Orders to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 were to not overwhelm the healthcare capacity and reduce the number of fatalities. The President of the United States urged states to mitigate COVID-19 for 15 and then 30 days to May 1, 2020. On April 17, 2020 the President presented a plan to re-open the Nation. At a press conference the same day, Gov. Northam stated he would follow the President’s plan and re-open Virginia “based on science.” He concluded that Virginia would follow his Amended Executive Order to “stay at home” until June 10, 2020;

Whereas on April 15, 2020 Gov. Northam briefed the analysis from the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) as the basis for his amended Executive Order. The VDH models indicate five alternatives for opening Virginia. The difference between the two options of “Pause Apr30” and “Pause Jun10” is to give hospitals six to eight weeks longer to increase their capacity for care;

Whereas the President’s plan for three Phases of re-opening is based on gateway criteria of a fourteen day reduction in new case of infection or in the rate of new infections over tests to allow states and counties to open;

Whereas many cities and counties in Virginia meet the criteria to move into Phase I as of April 17, 2020 and more may be able by May 1, 2020;

Whereas the Good People of Virginia will have tolerated the un-Constitutional, extra-legal, discriminatory, and morally wrong aspects of the Governor’s Executive Orders for 45 days to April 30, 2020 to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and additional time does not prevent, stop, or cure the virus. The quarantine of the whole state violates Title 32 of the Virginia Code and produces destructive, long lasting damage to the economy, small businesses and families;

Whereas Virginia must appeal to Heaven for the right to alter government at this time. Because governments are instituted among Men and Women, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. When the emergency powers given the Governor and political subdivisions to suppress a public health hazard are used to oppress The People, the consent of the governed must be withdrawn. When the government of Virginia becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter the government;

Now, be it Resolved,

1. We, the citizens of _____ (city or county), petition the Emergency Manager of ______(their political subdivision) to confirm the city or county meets either of the gateway criteria to move to a new Phase of recovery and if the criteria is met,
2. The Emergency Manager shall inform the Governor of the revocation of EO 53 as Amended and
3. Issue new guidance for the city or county for each of the three Phases as the city or county starts the Phase.    

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Yes. Open Virginia by city and county. Sooner the better.

Virginia Needs to Report the Right Numbers

The Virginia Department of Health (VDH)needs to report the data that supports a city or county in Virginia to move to a new Phase of re-opening.   That means the daily count of new cases and new cases/new testing need to be reported for each county and city in Virginia. Keep the data up, so it can easily be tracked to see when a city or county has improved for 14 days and is ready for the next Phase.

The VDH reports cumulative testing for the whole state. The daily count is needed by city and county to allow cities and counties to move on. Many cities and counties in Virginia are ready right now to move to Phase I. Many more should be ready by May 1, 2020.

When a city or county is ready to move on to Phase 1, the Emergency Manager of the city or county (see Title 44, Code of Virginia) should inform the Governor that Emergency Order 53 as Amended will be revoked on such and such a date certain.

The city councils and county board of supervisors for those political subdivisions ready to move to Phase I must support and supervise their Emergency Manager to not hesitate. And, not take “No” from the Governor.

The time to act is now.

The VDH data is informative and interesting, but not precisely on target for what is needed to create Recovering Cities and Counties across Virginia.

Finally, when it comes to data, expect the numbers to get worse.  All of the projections from the University of Virginia used by the VDH and Governor show a significant spike in new case of Wuhan Virus regardless of when Virginia is opened up.  Staying closed until June 10 doesn’t prevent illness.  Opening on April 30 doesn’t cause more illness.

Report the right numbers, VDH.

 

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Virginians are capable of self-government – including for public health.

President’s Plan to Re-Open Pandemic America

May Virginia get with the plan fast.

The Presidential Wuhan Virus Pandemic Task Force plan to re-open America is to re-open a pandemic country. The Wuhan Virus won’t be eradicated, cured, or in any way over. The plan to re-open our economy follows the 45 days spent mitigating the effects of the pandemic. Mitigating only. When the plan is followed, there will be a surge of new cases – no matter what. Virginians, take note to compare the President’s plan to King Northam’s plan for the Commonwealth.

First, a state or county goes 14 days with reductions in new cases or a reduction in positive tests.

The second gate criteria is important for math-challenged folks. A state could have 800, 900, 1000, etc. increasing new cases, but the testing could be expanding greatly. Say, 10k, 15k, 20k in the same time period. Then 800/10,000, 900/15,000, 1000/20,000 = .08, .06, .05, which means while the reported cases are increasing, the actual rate of infection is decreasing.  If the rate by testing gets smaller for 14 days, the state is ready to move to Phase I.

Phase I means people can go back to work. They should do social distancing – the ever popular 6 foot standoff. And, other hygiene tips we’ve heard for two months. Gyms open. Elective surgeries return. Restaurants open with social distancing. Gatherings should be kept below 10.

A number of states and about one in four US counties are ready to move to Phase I today. They are good to go for the criteria. After 14 days of more good news in Phase I, the state moves to the next phase.

Phase II means schools and daycares open. Large venues, like stadiums, open with social distancing. Lucky states could be in Phase II on May 1^st.

Another good run of 14 days qualifies a state for Phase III. Dr. Birx used the unfortunate term “new normal” for Phase III. It’s life is back to normal except for at risk populations who need to self-quarantine. It includes social distancing for everyone where possible. Some states and counties could be in Phase III by May 15^th.

Of course, King Ralph the Worst says Virginia can’t go to Phase I until June 10^th. Not good. And several aspects of the President’s plan bear clarification.

• If obesity is a co-morbidity condition, then half of the country is “at risk” and is to shelter in place for over a year. That’s unreasonable.
• Churches aren’t addressed specifically. Are they like restaurants in Phase I or large venues in Phase II? They should be cited clearly – what’s their plan to protect the parishioners and their freedom of religion.
• Since there will be surges upon opening and additional waves of illness, how long should they run before the elected politicians hit pause and revert back to the previous lock up status?

Virginia has to deal with two snarky comments from the Commissar King which suggests problems ahead.

• “The virus crosses county lines” excuse to imprison the whole state is wrong. If people aren’t moving, then neither is the virus. If infected counties are locked down, then their infected people shouldn’t be making other counties ill. All Virginia shouldn’t be subjected to the same cookie-cutter solution.
• “Virginia will follow the plan based on science” might mean all policies are subject to the single set of projections used by Virginia. Furthermore, there is good science and bad science. Bad science makes very bad policy. Like, when global weather change – which is based on science – is attributed to human activity (bad science) and requires a Green New Deal transformation of America (bad policy). Since the models for pandemics involve at least 10 independent variables, there are many sources of error to make bad science – and worse policy.

Virginians should consider when suppressing a pandemic becomes oppressing The People, then the consent of the governed should be withdrawn. Especially so when the suppression doesn’t actually benefit public health.

Remember, there will be a surge upon re-opening Virginia.  The politicians, especially Gov. Blackface Northam, need to NOT panic.  There will be recurring waves of illness.

And, Northam’s own slides show the difference between opening on May 1st and opening in June 10th does NOT save lives.  It just extends the time on state-wide lock up.  Locking up sick people is quarantine.  Locking up well people – for the best of reasons – is imprisonment.

Also, the people who will argue the hardest against re-starting the economy, know the least about the economy based on how they vote. The Left that is so stupid as to promote socialism is too stupid to understand how “stay home” orders kill the economy. They are clueless on how to recover and restore the economy. They’ll make the arguments that re-opening pits saving lives against the economy. False comparison.

The Virginia Department of Health needs to publish the daily “gateway” criteria. Namely, the new infections currently reported and the new infections divided by the new tests on a daily basis.

Virginia says “Thus always to Tyrants.” The “thus” is death.

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CNN goes nuts on being called out in public.

Making the Democrat Media an Enemy of the People

Everyone understands it when someone shouts, “That’s enough!”  It means you’ve gone too far, said too much, done wrong too many times and crossed the line, exceeded the limit, gone overboard, pushed too far and need to stop now. If you don’t, there will be consequences. The Mainstream Media (MSM) is there. By MSM it’s all the U.S. Media from press to TV to social media. All Media, except talk radio, select news celebrities and podcast stars, serves the Left.

The Media abrogated their Constitutional freedom of the press – to be truly free and open – and moved to become the ministry of propaganda for the Left decades ago. So, Conservatives have been complaining about the media bias for decades. But, the Media is at their “That’s enough!” moment. The Media is moving from their position as the opposition Democrat Media to become a true domestic enemy of the Constitution. Going from political opponent to actual enemy is huge. Yet, the self-righteous sirens for socialism don’t see the danger of their agitprop against President Trump – during the national emergency of the Wuhan Virus Pandemic.

This First Bio War begs all Americans to be patriots above partisanship. That’s no longer possible for the Left. They were able to play at unity for only a short time after 9-11. For the Left nothing is more important than political power. Consequently, everything that President Trump says or does earns their scorn. Not their principled opposition, but rage fueled and hate inspired attacks. The consistency of the Media’s failure to report and addiction to assault earned them the nickname “Fake news” from the President.

Notwithstanding the tit for tat in Presidential twitter wars, the Media is responsible for what they do, not what Trump does. And, they can not approach objective reality, or even honest skepticism, on every word and action during a novel national crisis. Furthermore, the Media repeats any and all Democrat talking points as readily as Goebbels would speak for Hitler or Pravda lie for Stalin. When the Nation really needs all the news that’s fit to print and sober analysis of events, the Media gives hype, hysteria, and hooey.

Policy decisions during this Bio War mean life and death. Wrong fiscal decisions during the Recovery can utterly destroy the economy for years. The output of ruining economic security and opportunities for America may bring even worse outcomes in social strife, attempts at more socialism, and bankrupting the Nation. Yet, Media can’t give pros and cons on any issue. The Media reports everything in their anti-Trump narrative.

The Media’s narrative, which seems as scripted as when the Clinton’s held weekly meetings with their minions on their precise message, got so bad, the President played a short tape of his timeline of action – and the reporting at the time. The Media went nuts at having their hypocrisy and outright lying called out on a nation-wide press conference.  They accused the President of pushing propaganda – in a classic projection of their own bias.

The inherent danger in not letting the President and his task force speak to The People for all Americans to decide on their own, is painting the President into a corner communication-wise. It pushes the whole Administration to become hyper-risk adverse, because they know everything they do will be taken out of context and criticized viciously. Yet, risks are precisely what may be needed to win this Bio War and recover well. Furthermore, it means the Democrats can do as they please with absolute impunity. No one with real power should have such a carte blanche.

Finally the abuse in the power of the press – the old pen is mightier than the sword cliché – is making matters worse during the Wuhan Virus Pandemic because the Media controls such a huge market share of all public information. The Left’s control of opinion and “news” outlets isn’t like the cynical “yellow journalism” of competing papers in the 19^th Century. The Media Left has gone too far from dereliction of duty to be free and open past dishonor to danger to the Republic. If they don’t stop at this “that’s enough” time, the Media will make themselves domestic enemies of the Constitution because they will be the enemies of truth.

That’s enough, Democrat Media.

The Media Left today would be this stupid – and more rude.

Good advice. Stupidity, socialism, and sophistry might be contagious.

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This slide is why Gov Ralph Blackface Northam wants Virginia to stay locked up.

Why King Northam Wants Virginia to Lock Up Longer

The Governor of Virginia wants Virginia to stay locked up until June 10th.  He wants the curve of infections from the Wuhan Virus Pandemic to follow the curve on the far right – the Pause Jun10 line.

The slides are at gov.Virginia.  The full presentation is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBHrtBUCGwg&feature=youtu.be

The modelers show two kinds of mitigation against the virus.  The “slowing” stops growth but doesn’t fully stop the virus.  The “pausing” pauses growth, keeping the new cases steady.   Uh-oh.  What’s the difference between slowing and pausing?  Neither ends the plague.  Neither cures the disease.  Both mitigations result in a lot of sick people and many die.

It’s interesting to look at the top line of the numbers chart. It shows the number of new cases in the one week ending in Easter – just passed on April 12th.  The actual number of new cases (from my personal chart with data from Johns Hopkins site) was 2877.  The model projected 2469.   Unfortunately, the chart doesn’t show the Pause Apr30 number.  The graph indicates they should be close together.

Then, if you open up Virginia in May, the curve goes up steeply.  Just like the curve goes up steeply if you open up in June. In both cases the analysts conclude the at the top of the curve, the need for hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators will exceed the capacity in every region of Virginia.

Look at the area under the curves for Pause Apr30 and Pause Jun10.  They are about the same.  The same number of people get sick.

So, the hard questions for Gov. Northam are:

“Will Virginia increase its’ capacity for beds, ICU beds, ventilators to exceed the worst, highest demand for the Pause Jun10 estimate?”  Yes or no?

“Can Virginia increase its capacity for beds, ICU beds, ventilators to exceed the worst, highest demand for the Pause Apr30 estimate?”  Yes or no?

Also, the key assumptions need to be watched closely for the next 2 weeks.  Currently, with only 39, 985 persons tested out of 8.47 million Virginians (April 12th) 1 in 5 persons confirmed to be infected need to be hospitalized.  More tests may show fewer than 1 in 5 (20%) need to be hospitalized.

Likewise, the assumption for every 1 person confirmed with infection there are 7 initial infections.  If that number is higher, then more people are infected – and not being hospitalized (or they’d be confirmed infections) then, again, fewer than 1 in 5 need to be hospitalized.

The lower the demand for hospitalization, the less reason to keep people locked up in a stay-at-home order.

Finally, the big heads up is that there will be a bump up in cases when Virginia moves back to normal.  And, there will be recurring waves of Wuhan Virus until a vaccine is ready in a year to a year and half.  The increases that will come aren’t justification to send Virginians back to their rooms.